Forecasting
Where is it going to blow? Ah, the perennial question that plagues us boardsailors.
Forecasting the Seattle region can be quite difficult, especially since we are often sailing marginal conditions where the difference of 3 mph can mean the difference between a great day and a frustrating failure.
Becoming great at forecasting is beyond the scope of this site. Instead, you'll want to get involved in the nw-windtalk email group and talk up your fellow sailors. And experiment. And learn to read tea leaves.
Here you will hopefully find enough information for the beginner or interemediate WA boadsailor to get started.
Resources
- iWindsurf - This costs $10/month, but has the most weather stations. You might not need it, but it's quite helpful and will save you headache. This website will often refer to data that you can only get through iWindsurf. In summer iWindsurf also has a dedicated pro forecast which is helpful.
- windy.com - The free app is quite good. For ~20/year you get more features.
- Forecasting from Phillip Schonger - This is a great, in-depth resource for PNW wind forecasting (from a kiter's perspective). It can be a bit overwhelming though.
- TJ's Jetty - TJ's is beloved by all forecasting experts, but I find it utterly baffling. Good luck.
Seattle Region
CONTENT FROM A BEGINNER - BEWARE!
Unfortunately, many of the sites in the Seattle region do not have wind meters. Some sites have meters near by, but the wind can be quite different at the launch. For instance, Magnusson has no iWindsurf spot. Sail Sand Point is very nearby, but on a southerly (when you would want to sail Magnusson), the wind at SSP is totally blocked. You can even be sitting at Sail Sand Point on a northerly, looking at the iWindsurf report, and find the wind to be somehow inconsistent with the reading. It's maddening! In Lake Washington, there are micro-micro climates.
Forecasting this region is an art. The expereienced sailors seem to have it mostly figured out, but as a beginner, it is a challenge. As a start, try this:
- You are trying to figure out a 'consensus' estimate. Do many different hints of data suggest wind? If so, go with that.
- iWindsurf - look at the spots nearby. Check their wind and forecast.
- Windy - Windy has a very good compare feature that will show you their estimate of several models at once. If they all converge, that's a good hint as to the forecast confidence.
- nw-windtalk - the email list is your best bet for the most accurate forecast. Here you have the experts reading the sources, applying it to their spots, and coming up with their best guess. Do what they do.